A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
